Questions Heading into 2018

Here are 20 questions that are on my mind as we enter the new year:

  1. Will the stock market experience a correction (decline of ≥ 10 percent)?
  2. Will interest rate increases combined with quantitative tightening impact liquidity enough to trigger a material repricing of assets?
  3. Will war break out on the Korean peninsula?
  4. Will Putin take military action in Eastern Europe or elsewhere?
  5. Will President Trump do something stupid that gets a lot of people killed?
  6. Will the president’s mental condition become a major issue? (I do think Mr. Trump is experiencing cognitive decline [perhaps dementia] and, in that sense, is not well.)
  7. Will the president fire the special counsel?
  8. Will the midterm elections produce a change of control in Congress?
  9. Will inflation be materially higher than in 2017?
  10. Will the USD strengthen or weaken?
  11. Will I regret not buying bitcoin? (I doubt it, but it’s possible.)
  12. Will China be able to sustain its ridiculously high debt for yet another year? (They’re playing with fire, and I fear it’s not going to end well.)
  13. Will it become apparent that Great Britain was the first but not the last? (I still think the E.U. will unravel at some point.)
  14. Will Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden realize they’d be too old?
  15. Will the Millennials stop deferring to the Baby Boomers and start voting in larger numbers and exerting political pressure in a meaningful way? (I sure hope so, before the Boomers do even more damage.)
  16. Will people finally get their fill of Facebook? (The tool is fine; the addictions and propaganda aren’t.)
  17. Will people realize that allowing Alexa and its like into their houses to spy on everything that happens there just might not be a good idea? (For anyone except the hackers and intelligence agencies, that is, who must love it.)
  18. Will the Steelers locate their missing defense?
  19. Will the dragons survive?
  20. Will my broken bones finally heal?

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