Ready or Not, China Is Becoming the Big Boy on the Block

My fav British economist-journalist Martin Wolf sums it up well in his most recent Financial Times op-ed titled “US-China rivalry will shape the 21st century.” I recommend you take the time to read it, especially if you want to understand the Trump-China tussle better.

I wish Wolf wasn’t right about this but fear he is. He opines:

The threat is the decadence of the west, very much including the US — the prevalence of rent extraction as a way of economic life, the indifference to the fate of much of its citizenry, the corrupting role of money in politics, the indifference to the truth, and the sacrifice of long-term investment to private and public consumption.

History tells us that the odds are high that the U.S. and China will find themselves in armed conflict before this power shift is complete. It’s not inevitable though.

My hope is that America’s attention will be focused on many of the problems alluded to by Mr. Wolf: the out-of-control rent extraction economy, the indifference to quality of life issues, the corruption (particularly in our deeply flawed system for financing political campaigns), the lack of honesty and virtue, our short-term mindset, our excessive leverage, etc.

China is on the rise. By quite a few measures, America is on the wane. But China’s rise does not require America’s decline. Both can rise together, albeit at different rates (since China has far to go to catch up). But that’s not necessarily what will happen. The choice is ours. And, right now, there’s not a whole lot of reason for optimism.

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